So Trump will likely get his way in more cases than not. But he shouldn’t celebrate just yet, because the short-term payoff of strong-arming Latin America will come at the long-term cost of accelerating the region’s shift toward China and increasing its instability. The latter tends, sooner or later, to boomerang back into the United States.

As diplomatic conflict and trade-war talk ramps up, the continent’s often fractious leaders could end up sharing an antagonist in common.

Migration, relations with China and crisis points in Cuba and Venezuela are among the top issues the region will deal with under the new U.S. administration.