Notre Dame and Penn State are set for the College Football Playoff Orange Bowl semifinal with a shot at the national title matchup on the line. Here’s the latest prediction for the game from an expert analytical model that projects scores and picks winners.

The sixth-seeded Nittany Lions will face their toughest challenge in the College Football Playoff against the seventh-seeded Fighting Irish on Thursday (7:30 p.m., ESPN).

Penn State was unable to corral Oregon’s offense in the Big Ten Championship though, allowing 496 total yards while dropping a 45-37 decision to the then undefeated Ducks. The Nittany Lions eviscerated SMU in the first round of the CFP Playoff,