After months of campaigning and voting amid serious fan debates, the 2025 Oscars nominations are in – and now it's time to predict who will take home an Academy Award in March. But unlike previous years,

Though there is a clear frontrunner for Best Actress, recency bias still does have a little sway in who wins the Oscar.

You get an Oscar, you get an Oscar, every Best Picture nominee gets an Oscar? Not always. For most of the past decade when the Oscars used the sliding scale in Best Picture, most, if not all, of the Best Picture nominees every year walked away with at least one Oscar.

We update our picks through awards season, so keep checking IndieWire for all our 2025 Oscar predictions. While the other acting categories have a very clear frontrunner, the Best Actor Oscar race is pretty evenly split between "A Complete Unknown" star Timothée Chalamet and "The Brutalist" star Adrien Brody,